Real Madrid’s crumbling title hopes hang by a thread as they travel to Vitoria for a pivotal La Liga clash against Deportivo Alaves on Sunday, December 14, 2025. A 2-0 away win is the most common prediction among analysts — and for good reason. Despite recent struggles, Real Madrid’s statistical edge, historical dominance, and the urgency of their situation make them overwhelming favorites. But this isn’t just another away game. It’s a lifeline.
Pressure Mounts for Xabi Alonso
Xabi Alonso is under fire. After winning just two of his last eight matches across all competitions, the pressure is no longer subtle. A 2-0 loss to Celta Vigo in La Liga and a heartbreaking 2-1 defeat to Manchester City in the Champions League have left Real Madrid trailing Barcelona by up to seven points. Fans are restless. Media outlets are sharpening their knives. And the club’s board? They’re watching closely.Alonso’s side has struggled to break down low blocks — a problem that could be fatal against Alaves, who’ve conceded just 0.6 goals per game at home this season. But here’s the twist: Real Madrid’s expected goals away figure sits at 1.92, the highest in La Liga for away matches. That’s not luck. That’s quality. Even when they’re off, they create chances. The question isn’t whether they’ll score — it’s whether they’ll score cleanly.
Alaves’ Home Fortress — And Its Limits
Deportivo Alaves has surprised many this season. After beating Real Sociedad in the Basque derby, they looked like a team finding form. Their home record? Win-draw-win-loss-win. Solid. But history doesn’t lie.In the last 21 meetings between Alaves and Real Madrid, the Madrid giants have won 19 times. No draws. Just dominance. And in the last 16 encounters, Real Madrid have won 14. Alaves’ only two victories? Both came over a decade ago. Their offense? Weak. Only 13 goals in 15 league games. Five of their seven defeats came without scoring. They’re not built to outscore anyone. They’re built to survive.
Manager Eduardo Coudet has his team disciplined. But discipline doesn’t beat world-class talent forever. Especially when that talent has everything to prove.
The Stats Don’t Lie — But They Don’t Tell the Whole Story
Multiple prediction sites — FootballPredictions.com, FreeSuperTips.com, and Windrawwin.com — all lean toward a 2-0 Real Madrid win. Why? Because Real Madrid have kept clean sheets in four of the last five meetings. Alaves haven’t scored against them since 2021.But here’s what the numbers miss: emotion. This is Estadio de Mendizorroza. A packed, passionate crowd. A team fighting for pride. A manager who knows his side can’t win the league, but can still make history by stopping the giants.
Real Madrid’s suspensions — Álvaro Carrera, Endrick, and Fran García — are a concern. But the return of Kylian Mbappé is the game-changer. He’s not just fit. He’s hungry. After a quiet spell, he’ll want to remind everyone why he’s worth €180 million.
Why This Match Matters Beyond the Table
If Real Madrid lose? The title race is effectively over. Barcelona would be nine points clear with fewer games played. The psychological blow would be massive.If they win? Everything changes. Momentum shifts. The whispers about Alonso’s future quiet down. Mbappé’s impact becomes undeniable. And suddenly, the gap isn’t seven points — it’s five. With 18 games left, that’s a lifeline.
This isn’t about Alaves’ defense. It’s about Real Madrid’s will. Can they grind out a result when they’re not at their best? Can they turn frustration into focus? The answer will define their season.
What’s Next?
The next 72 hours will be critical. Alonso’s training sessions will be intense. Mbappé’s fitness will be monitored minute by minute. And the fans? They’ll be watching every touch, every pass, every shot.Alaves will dig in. They always do. But Real Madrid have won 14 of their last 16 trips here. They’ve kept clean sheets in four of the last five. And with Mbappé back, the odds tilt even further.
Don’t expect fireworks. Expect grit. Expect a tight first half. Expect a moment of brilliance in the 65th minute. Expect the final whistle: Real Madrid 2, Alaves 0.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this match affect Real Madrid’s chances of winning La Liga?
A win keeps Real Madrid within striking distance — potentially cutting Barcelona’s lead to five points. A loss, however, would leave them seven or more behind with fewer games in hand, making a title comeback statistically improbable. With only 18 matches left, every point matters, and a defeat here would likely signal the end of their title hopes.
Why is Kylian Mbappé’s return so crucial for Real Madrid?
Mbappé’s pace and finishing are the antidote to low-block defenses like Alaves’. With 13 goals in 15 league games this season, he’s the only Real Madrid player consistently breaking through defensive lines. His absence in recent losses cost them crucial goals. His return doesn’t just add firepower — it restores belief.
Has Alaves ever beaten Real Madrid at home recently?
No. Alaves’ last home win against Real Madrid was in 2012. Since then, they’ve lost 10 straight at Estadio de Mendizorroza, including six by a 2-0 or 3-1 scoreline. Their defensive record is strong, but they lack the attacking quality to convert pressure into goals against elite sides.
What do the betting markets suggest about this game?
Most major betting sites, including FootballPredictions.com and FreeSuperTips.com, favor a 2-0 Real Madrid win with odds around 7/1. The consensus is "Under 2.5 Goals" and "BTTS: No," reflecting Alaves’ inability to score and Real Madrid’s tendency to win clean sheets against them. Even analysts who expect a draw admit it’s a long shot.
Why is Real Madrid struggling despite having top-tier players?
It’s a mix of tactical rigidity and lack of midfield control. Without a true playmaker to unlock defenses, they rely too much on individual moments. Injuries and suspensions have disrupted chemistry, and Xabi Alonso’s system hasn’t adapted well to teams sitting deep. They’re talented, but not yet cohesive.
What’s the historical significance of this fixture?
Real Madrid have won 19 of the last 21 meetings against Alaves — the most lopsided head-to-head record in La Liga among teams that have faced each other regularly. Alaves have never drawn with Real Madrid in any of their 16 league encounters. This isn’t just dominance — it’s psychological control. Alaves know they’re playing against history.
ankur Rawat
Real Madrid better not choke this one. Alaves might be underdogs but they’ve got that stubborn home vibe and if Mbappé isn’t 100%, this could turn into a nightmare. I’ve seen this script before - star player returns, fans cheer, then he gets flagged for offside three times and we lose 1-0 on a counter. Please don’t let this be another one of those days.
Vraj Shah
bro just win 2-0 and move on. no need to overthink. alaves cant score, mbappe is back, endrick is out but who cares. xabi just need to tell the boys to pass the ball and not overcomplicate. simple. win. next.
Kumar Deepak
Oh wow, a 2-0 win prediction? How original. Next you’ll tell me the sun rises in the east and water is wet. Alaves have been holding Real Madrid to 0-0 for 70 minutes since 2008. This isn’t football, it’s a ritual. The giants show up, the little guys dig in, and then the giants score on a set piece because someone forgot to mark the guy who’s 5’6” and weighs 120 lbs. Again.
Ganesh Dhenu
Alaves have a system. It’s not pretty. It’s not exciting. But it works. Real Madrid have the talent, yes. But talent without rhythm is just noise. If Alonso doesn’t fix the midfield transition, even Mbappé will look like he’s running in sand. I’ve watched too many games like this. The result is never in doubt. The process always is.
Yogananda C G
Let’s be real here - this isn’t just about a match, it’s about legacy, momentum, psychological resilience, tactical evolution, squad depth management, fan morale preservation, media narrative control, board confidence maintenance, player confidence restoration, and the entire philosophical framework of modern football as it relates to elite club performance under pressure - and yes, I know that’s a mouthful, but if you think this is just about two teams playing soccer, you’re missing the entire universe of stakes here - and honestly, if Real Madrid lose, the entire structure of Spanish football might as well collapse like a house of cards made of wet paper towels, because Barcelona will be nine points up with games in hand and the narrative will be unstoppable and nobody will believe in Alonso anymore and the club will spiral into chaos and we’ll be talking about managerial changes and transfer targets and youth academy rebuilds and the whole thing becomes a soap opera and I just hope they win so we don’t have to go through this again
Divyanshu Kumar
It is my humble opinion that the performance of Real Madrid in recent fixtures has been sub-optimal, despite possessing superior individual talent. The absence of a true number 8 has created a vacuum in midfield control, and this is evident in their inability to penetrate low blocks. Alaves, while tactically disciplined, lack the offensive firepower to exploit this. Thus, a 2-0 victory remains the most statistically probable outcome, though emotional factors may introduce unpredictability.
Andrea Hierman
I understand the statistical edge, but I’m genuinely worried about the emotional toll on the players. Real Madrid haven’t looked like a team that believes in itself lately. If Mbappé scores, it won’t be because the system worked - it’ll be because he’s a once-in-a-generation talent who carried them again. And that’s not sustainable. I hope they win, but I’m not convinced they deserve to.
Danny Johnson
Man, I just want them to win so I can stop stressing. I’ve been checking the lineup every 10 minutes since yesterday. If Mbappé starts and plays 70 minutes, I’m gonna hug my dog. No cap. Just… win. Please. I can’t take another 2-1 loss to City and then a 1-0 at home to Betis. I’m emotionally drained.
Christine Dick
And yet, somehow, you all still think this team is worth the money? Mbappé is a glorified sprinter who can’t hold the ball under pressure. Alonso is a glorified assistant coach who got lucky once. The entire squad is overpaid, under-disciplined, and emotionally fragile. If they lose, it’s not because of Alaves - it’s because they’re a circus of entitled prima donnas. And don’t even get me started on the fanbase that still calls them "the greatest."
Jullien Marie Plantinos
2-0? Are you kidding? Alaves are gonna win 3-1. This is all a setup. Real Madrid lost on purpose last week to manipulate the schedule. The board wants to fire Alonso, so they’re letting them lose to make it look like he’s failing. Mbappé’s "return"? He never left. He was in rehab for a "knee injury" that was actually a panic attack from all the pressure. The whole thing’s a lie.
Jason Davis
Alaves are a textbook example of defensive cohesion. They don’t need to dominate possession - they just need to stay compact, force turnovers, and hit on the break. Real Madrid’s midfield has been too slow to adapt. The real story here isn’t Mbappé - it’s the lack of a true #8. If Valverde doesn’t get minutes, this game becomes a 90-minute siege. And Alaves? They’ve got the patience of monks. They’ll wait. And then - boom - one moment of chaos, and it’s 1-0.
Crystal Zárifa
I mean… I’m not saying Alaves are gonna win, but I also don’t believe in destiny. Football isn’t a movie. Stats don’t care about your feelings. And if Real Madrid keep playing like they’re trying to win a beauty pageant instead of a match, they’re gonna get exposed. Alaves are the kind of team that makes you question everything you thought you knew about football. Quiet. Patient. Unrelenting. That’s scarier than any superstar.
Serena May
2-0. Mbappé 67'. Carvajal assist. Clean sheet. End of story. 📊
Cheryl Jonah
They’re all being manipulated. The stats? Fake. The predictions? AI-generated by the same people who run the betting sites. Alaves are a front for a secret league of Basque separatists who’ve been training for 20 years to destroy Real Madrid’s aura. The 2-0 prediction? It’s a trap. They’re gonna score in the 89th minute with a goal from their goalkeeper. He’s been hiding his speed. They’ve got a drone filming the training sessions. You think this is football? It’s a psyop.
James Otundo
Let’s be honest - this isn’t football, it’s a corporate brand extension. Real Madrid is a multinational conglomerate with a football team attached. Alaves? A regional nonprofit with a stadium and a dream. The 2-0 prediction isn’t about tactics - it’s about brand equity. The board needs the narrative to stay intact. The players are just actors in a script written by marketing executives. Mbappé’s goal? It’s not a goal - it’s a product placement.
ryan pereyra
Let’s analyze this through the lens of post-structuralist football theory. The binary opposition of center vs. periphery is embodied here: Madrid as hegemonic metropole, Alaves as subaltern resistance. The 2-0 scoreline isn’t a result - it’s a discursive construction of power. Mbappé’s return is a symptomatic rupture in the capitalist football apparatus, yet the structural dominance remains intact. The clean sheet? A performative affirmation of colonial continuity. Alaves’ silence? Not weakness - it’s epistemic violence.
Jane Roams Free
I just hope everyone stays safe. No matter the score, it’s just a game. The players are human. The fans are human. Let’s not turn this into a war. I’ll be watching with tea and a blanket. Win or lose, I’m proud of them for showing up.
Anthony Watkins
USA 100% better football than this. Real Madrid? They’re just rich kids with fancy boots. Alaves? At least they play like they care. I’m rooting for the underdog. 2-0? Nah. 1-0 Alaves. Let the giants choke. 😎
Bryan Kam
Alaves have the discipline. Madrid have the talent. But discipline beats talent when talent is lazy. I’ll believe it when I see it.