Real Madrid’s crumbling title hopes hang by a thread as they travel to Vitoria for a pivotal La Liga clash against Deportivo Alaves on Sunday, December 14, 2025. A 2-0 away win is the most common prediction among analysts — and for good reason. Despite recent struggles, Real Madrid’s statistical edge, historical dominance, and the urgency of their situation make them overwhelming favorites. But this isn’t just another away game. It’s a lifeline.
Pressure Mounts for Xabi Alonso
Xabi Alonso is under fire. After winning just two of his last eight matches across all competitions, the pressure is no longer subtle. A 2-0 loss to Celta Vigo in La Liga and a heartbreaking 2-1 defeat to Manchester City in the Champions League have left Real Madrid trailing Barcelona by up to seven points. Fans are restless. Media outlets are sharpening their knives. And the club’s board? They’re watching closely.Alonso’s side has struggled to break down low blocks — a problem that could be fatal against Alaves, who’ve conceded just 0.6 goals per game at home this season. But here’s the twist: Real Madrid’s expected goals away figure sits at 1.92, the highest in La Liga for away matches. That’s not luck. That’s quality. Even when they’re off, they create chances. The question isn’t whether they’ll score — it’s whether they’ll score cleanly.
Alaves’ Home Fortress — And Its Limits
Deportivo Alaves has surprised many this season. After beating Real Sociedad in the Basque derby, they looked like a team finding form. Their home record? Win-draw-win-loss-win. Solid. But history doesn’t lie.In the last 21 meetings between Alaves and Real Madrid, the Madrid giants have won 19 times. No draws. Just dominance. And in the last 16 encounters, Real Madrid have won 14. Alaves’ only two victories? Both came over a decade ago. Their offense? Weak. Only 13 goals in 15 league games. Five of their seven defeats came without scoring. They’re not built to outscore anyone. They’re built to survive.
Manager Eduardo Coudet has his team disciplined. But discipline doesn’t beat world-class talent forever. Especially when that talent has everything to prove.
The Stats Don’t Lie — But They Don’t Tell the Whole Story
Multiple prediction sites — FootballPredictions.com, FreeSuperTips.com, and Windrawwin.com — all lean toward a 2-0 Real Madrid win. Why? Because Real Madrid have kept clean sheets in four of the last five meetings. Alaves haven’t scored against them since 2021.But here’s what the numbers miss: emotion. This is Estadio de Mendizorroza. A packed, passionate crowd. A team fighting for pride. A manager who knows his side can’t win the league, but can still make history by stopping the giants.
Real Madrid’s suspensions — Álvaro Carrera, Endrick, and Fran García — are a concern. But the return of Kylian Mbappé is the game-changer. He’s not just fit. He’s hungry. After a quiet spell, he’ll want to remind everyone why he’s worth €180 million.
Why This Match Matters Beyond the Table
If Real Madrid lose? The title race is effectively over. Barcelona would be nine points clear with fewer games played. The psychological blow would be massive.If they win? Everything changes. Momentum shifts. The whispers about Alonso’s future quiet down. Mbappé’s impact becomes undeniable. And suddenly, the gap isn’t seven points — it’s five. With 18 games left, that’s a lifeline.
This isn’t about Alaves’ defense. It’s about Real Madrid’s will. Can they grind out a result when they’re not at their best? Can they turn frustration into focus? The answer will define their season.
What’s Next?
The next 72 hours will be critical. Alonso’s training sessions will be intense. Mbappé’s fitness will be monitored minute by minute. And the fans? They’ll be watching every touch, every pass, every shot.Alaves will dig in. They always do. But Real Madrid have won 14 of their last 16 trips here. They’ve kept clean sheets in four of the last five. And with Mbappé back, the odds tilt even further.
Don’t expect fireworks. Expect grit. Expect a tight first half. Expect a moment of brilliance in the 65th minute. Expect the final whistle: Real Madrid 2, Alaves 0.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this match affect Real Madrid’s chances of winning La Liga?
A win keeps Real Madrid within striking distance — potentially cutting Barcelona’s lead to five points. A loss, however, would leave them seven or more behind with fewer games in hand, making a title comeback statistically improbable. With only 18 matches left, every point matters, and a defeat here would likely signal the end of their title hopes.
Why is Kylian Mbappé’s return so crucial for Real Madrid?
Mbappé’s pace and finishing are the antidote to low-block defenses like Alaves’. With 13 goals in 15 league games this season, he’s the only Real Madrid player consistently breaking through defensive lines. His absence in recent losses cost them crucial goals. His return doesn’t just add firepower — it restores belief.
Has Alaves ever beaten Real Madrid at home recently?
No. Alaves’ last home win against Real Madrid was in 2012. Since then, they’ve lost 10 straight at Estadio de Mendizorroza, including six by a 2-0 or 3-1 scoreline. Their defensive record is strong, but they lack the attacking quality to convert pressure into goals against elite sides.
What do the betting markets suggest about this game?
Most major betting sites, including FootballPredictions.com and FreeSuperTips.com, favor a 2-0 Real Madrid win with odds around 7/1. The consensus is "Under 2.5 Goals" and "BTTS: No," reflecting Alaves’ inability to score and Real Madrid’s tendency to win clean sheets against them. Even analysts who expect a draw admit it’s a long shot.
Why is Real Madrid struggling despite having top-tier players?
It’s a mix of tactical rigidity and lack of midfield control. Without a true playmaker to unlock defenses, they rely too much on individual moments. Injuries and suspensions have disrupted chemistry, and Xabi Alonso’s system hasn’t adapted well to teams sitting deep. They’re talented, but not yet cohesive.
What’s the historical significance of this fixture?
Real Madrid have won 19 of the last 21 meetings against Alaves — the most lopsided head-to-head record in La Liga among teams that have faced each other regularly. Alaves have never drawn with Real Madrid in any of their 16 league encounters. This isn’t just dominance — it’s psychological control. Alaves know they’re playing against history.
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