When Pankaj Arora, national president of the jewellery chapter of Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), unveiled the latest numbers on October 19, 2025, India’s festive season hit a historic milestone: consumers poured an estimated Rs 1 lakh crore into Dhanteras purchases, with gold and silver alone accounting for roughly Rs 60 crore. The surge mattered because it came despite gold prices soaring 65 % year‑on‑year to cross Rs 1,30,000 per 10 grams, a level many feared would choke demand.
CAIT’s data, released in an official statement, showed that the two‑day window of October 18‑19, 2025, saw a 25 % jump in bullion sales compared with the previous year. In the nation’s capital, Delhi, bullion markets alone logged more than Rs 10 crore in sales, according to the association’s figures.
Historically, India moves around 39 tonnes of gold during Dhanteras; this year the weight is expected to be higher, driven mainly by a surge in coin purchases rather than traditional jewellery. Southern India, which usually consumes about 40 % of the country’s 800‑850 tonnes of annual gold, remained the biggest regional driver, but the rush was truly pan‑India.
Gold closed on Friday, October 17, at Rs 1,34,800 per 10 grams, while silver hit Rs 1,74,306 per kilogram, both including a 3 % GST. On Sunday the day after, the market corrected – gold slipped by Rs 2,400 and silver by Rs 7,000 – after global spot gold retreated from a record $4,379.44 per ounce to $4,249.98 as traders booked profits.
"Globally, gold’s rally is being fuelled by a weak dollar, expectations of U.S. rate cuts, and massive central bank buying," explained Inderbir Singh Jolly, CEO of PL Wealth Management. He added that domestic premiums have jumped to decade‑high levels as investors increasingly favor bars and coins over ornate jewellery.
Retail leaders echoed the optimism. "The trend shows that we will surpass last year Dhanteras sales both by volume and value," said Baby George, CEO of Joyalukkas. Meanwhile, Colin Shah, managing director of Kama Jewelry, noted, "Now that there is no sign of a correction in prices and all economic indicators are pointing towards fresh highs, people have come out to purchase gold."
Ajoy Chawla, chief executive of Tanishq, added, "Despite record‑high gold prices, we are witnessing renewed enthusiasm this festive season. Consumers are viewing price volatility as a strategic opportunity to reinvest — whether through gold coins or by upgrading jewellery."
Across metros – Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore – stores reported stock shortages, especially of gold coins. The shortage was so acute that some retailers ran out of inventory before the weekend was over.
Analysts warned that record‑high prices could trim sales volume by up to 15 % compared with prior years, but most retailers expect the higher value per gram to offset any dip in units sold.
Looking ahead, ICICI Bank Global Markets projects domestic gold to trade between Rs 1,20,000 and Rs 1,35,000 per 10 grams for the rest of 2025, with a possible climb to Rs 1,45,000 by early 2026. The bank also expects the Indian rupee to hover in the 87‑89 per USD band, a scenario that could further bolster local gold prices.
Beyond the pure numbers, gold’s cultural heft remains a decisive factor. The festival of Dhanteras, tied to Goddess Lakshmi, is traditionally seen as an auspicious time to acquire gold, believed to invite prosperity and ward off misfortune. That belief, fused with a contemporary view of gold as a hedge against inflation, helped fuel the buying frenzy even as prices hit historic highs.
Gold is both a cultural symbol of prosperity and a financial hedge. With festival traditions urging purchases and a weak rupee attracting safe‑haven buying, shoppers viewed the high price as a long‑term store of value rather than a short‑term expense.
The modest dip – Rs 2,400 for gold and Rs 7,000 for silver – barely dented footfall. Retailers in Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore reported queues continuing unabated, indicating that price volatility reinforced rather than discouraged buying.
Southern states remain the largest gold‑consuming belt, accounting for over 40 % of national demand. However, northern metros such as Delhi and Chandigarh saw a sharp rise in coin purchases, and western hubs like Mumbai experienced record jewellery sales.
ICICI Bank Global Markets expects domestic gold to stay above Rs 1,20,000 per 10 grams throughout 2025 and may reach Rs 1,45,000 by early 2026, driven by a weak dollar, anticipated U.S. rate cuts, and continued central‑bank buying.
The Rs 1 lakh crore total outstrips the Rs 800 crore recorded in 2024, while gold‑related sales are up 25 % year‑on‑year. Despite higher prices, the volume of transactions rose, reflecting both festive demand and an investment mindset among buyers.
Arundhati Barman Roy
The sheer magnitude of the spend is simply heartbreaking, yet it somehow feels inevitable despite the unforseen market dynamics.